There is a Level 4 Moderate risk for severe weather Tuesday throughout most of the coverage area. An isolated severe risk will be possible early Tuesday afternoon with storms becoming more widespread late Tuesday evening and overnight.
A few strong tornadoes are possible. The highest tornado risk is east of a line from Rogers, AR to Springfield, MO. This area could see a few EF-2 + tornadoes.
There remains the question of whether a cap of warm air aloft will limit severe weather. A cap, also called a lid, is a layer of relatively warm air aloft, usually several thousand feet above the ground, which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further and produce thunderstorms. If this cap does break, severe weather will become very likely.
Here is the latest Future Track Radar:
Large hail the size of tennis balls and damaging winds will also be likely with any thunderstorm.
When there is a threat of widespread severe storms, which can produce long-lived and intense tornadoes, a moderate risk of severe weather is forecast.
On Tuesday, expect wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph outside of thunderstorms.
Keep an eye out for the latest updates on Tuesday, which has been designated a Weather Warn Day.
